Crude oil futures settle at $63.15

The price has generally remained below the 50% retracement level of the trading range from the 2020 low, which stands at $64.71. For the bullish bias to gain traction, a sustained move above this midpoint is essential. On April 23, the price briefly climbed above this level, reaching a high of $64.83, before reversing lower—highlighting the importance of this technical barrier.

Geopolitical developments may influence sentiment, with Ukraine and Russia set to hold talks on Thursday. Former President Trump has indicated he may attend, though it’s unclear if President Putin will be present. Trump also reiterated his willingness to strike a deal with Iran, but only on the condition that Iran abandons its nuclear weapons program.

Fundamentally, the market is drawing support from the growing view that recession fears may have been overstated. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. crude oil inventory report showed a surprise build of 3.454 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1.078 million. Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 1.022 million barrels, larger than the expected 561,000-barrel decline—a sign of continued strong demand.