EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Upward.
- Today’s Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1330 – 1.1270 – 1.1190.
- Today’s Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1460 – 1.1500 – 1.1580.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1290 support level with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss of 1.1200.
- Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1500 resistance level with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss of 1.1610.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The gains for the EUR/USD currency pair halted at the 1.1455 resistance level, with the pair quickly retreating to the 1.1356 support level during Wednesday’s trading. This movement followed weaker-than-expected European inflation data, a reduction in global growth forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and escalating political uncertainty in the Netherlands.
According to economic calendar data, Eurozone consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year in May, falling short of the 2.0% forecast. This reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this week – likely the last cut before a pause in the monetary easing cycle. Meanwhile, the OECD lowered its global economic growth forecasts, projecting GDP growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, citing escalating trade tensions.
In the Netherlands, political instability intensified after the government collapsed due to disagreements over immigration policy, prompting far-right leader Geert Wilders to withdraw his party from the ruling coalition. Overall, trade policy uncertainty remained a key focus, with reports indicating that the United States is demanding final offers in ongoing negotiations by Wednesday – just days after President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Trading Advice:
We still recommend selling the EUR/USD on any strong upward bounce, but without taking risks and waiting for the reaction to this week’s important events and data.
Today’s Technical Levels for Euro-Dollar:
Based on the daily timeframe chart, despite the selling pressure, the overall trend for the EUR/USD currency pair remains upward, supported by the move towards and above the 1.1400 resistance. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upwards and still has room for further gains before reaching overbought territory. Obviously, this could occur at the 1.1520 and 1.1600 resistance levels, respectively. At the same time, the MACD indicator lines are also trending upward, assuring bulls that they can target higher peaks if US jobs data comes in lower than expected and if the ECB this week abandons its dovish tone.
Euro-Dollar trading today will react to the announcement of the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for European economies, starting with the Spanish reading at 10:15 AM EEST, followed by the German reading at 10:55 AM EEST, and the Eurozone aggregate reading at 11:00 AM EEST. Then, more crucially, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be announced at 3:15 PM EEST, and the US ISM Services PMI reading at 5:00 PM EEST.
Tomorrow, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates in its decision, but recent inflation figures may increase the likelihood of another rate cut afterward.
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