Fundamental
Overview
Gold has been under
pressure for a few weeks as the market priced out the stagflationary
expectations and repriced the rate cut bets. The market is now seeing around 58
bps of easing for the Fed by year-end compared to like 120 bps at the peak of
the fears in April.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed
easing. But in the short-term the repricing in rate cuts expectations could
weigh on gold, so watch out for the economic data and Fed comments.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold eventually pulled all the way back to the major trendline where the buyers stepped in
with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new
all-time high. The sellers will need to see the price breaking lower to start
targeting the 2960 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had quite strong bounce around the trendline as the buyers kept pushing
into the key 3260 level. The sellers stepped in around the resistance
to position for a drop back into the trendline, while the buyers will need to
see the price breaking above the 3260 level to extend the rally into the downward
trendline around the 3360 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 3200 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for a break above the 3260 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the lows. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.
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