In the European session, the focus will be on the Flash PMIs where the market will want to see how business confidence changed since the new developments on the trade front and what’s the sentiment going forward.
In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs. The Jobless Claims data will likely be ignored as usual as the labour market remains stable and therefore not a source of concerns. Only a spike above the 260K level for Initial Claims could trigger a repricing in expectations.
The US Flash PMIs, on the other hand, will be important to see if there’s a strong bounce back in activity (or expectations of that in the months ahead) and the picture around inflation. The market is currently pricing 51 bps of easing for the Fed in 2025 with the first cut in September. The data from now on could change those expectations and therefore move the markets.
Today, the US House could also vote on the “big, beautiful bill” and if successful could add to inflationary concerns and therefore push long term yields higher.
Central bank speakers:
- 07:15 GMT/03:15 ET – BoE’s Breeden (neutral – voter)
- 08:30 GMT/04:30 ET – RBA’s Hauser (neutral – voter)
- 12:00 GMT/08:00 ET – BoE’s Dhingra (uber dove – voter)
- 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – BoE’s Pill (neutral – voter)
- 18:00 GMT/14:00 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)
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